Mid-Term Election Prediction
If you’ve noticed, I haven’t advocated for any particular politician in this election cycle. The reason being is that most of the politicians in California are set in stone. The districts are so gerrymandered that there really is no such thing as competition. It looks as though Arnold will win the governorship. That’s a little surprising but he did slide back to the middle and for the most part, folks don’t really see him as a threat since most of the state Congress is Democrat.
With that said, there hasn’t been a reason to really push a candidate. But with the election just a couple of days away, I think I should make some predictions.
House: Rather than go into every House race I will just say that come November 8, you should expect a Democrat majority in the House. The Democrats may pick up as many as 30 seats but I think the number is closer to 20.
Senate: Le’ts look at the key races.
Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum(R) vs. Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Rick Santorum is a strange character and I think he is just too far to the right for most of Pennsylvania. The state went for Kerry in 2004 and it will help that a Democrat will win the Governorship of Pennsylvania.
Winner: Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Ohio: Mike Dewine(R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
The Ohio Republican Party is a mess. The Democrat Party is enthusiastic and they will definitely get out the vote. Mike DeWine will be the victim of an unpopular President and chaotic state Party.
Winner: Sherrod Brown (D)
Virginia: George Allen(R) vs. James Webb (D)
If George Allen accomplished anything in this election cycle it was dismantling his chance at a run for President. I’m not sure he could have run a worse campaign. James Webb didn’t do much to capitalize on Allen’s missteps. This is a race where incumbency will make the difference.
Winner: George Allen (R)
Maryland: Michael Steele(R) vs. Ben Cardin(D)
This one is close but I have to give this one to Ben Cardin. Michael Steele has a ran a really good race but again, this is a Democrat state and I think it will stay that way.
Winner: Ben Cardin (D)
Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee (R) vs. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Although Chafee is a Republican, he is rather liberal. Most of Chafee’s problem is not his own but a part of the anti-Republican wave that is sweeping the country. If the anti-Republican sentiment gets more Democrats to the polls, then Chafee could go down. I think that voters may not punish Chafee and he should hold on by a slim margin.
Winner: Lincoln Chafee (R)
Missouri: Jim Talent vs. Claire McCaskill
Wow, this has been one hell of a race. This is probably the only race where I find it difficult to make a call. My gut tells me that McCaskill will win but this one will come down to turnout.
Winner: Too close to call
Tennessee: Harold Ford vs. Bob Corker
This has been an ugly race… and “race” is the main point with this one. Harold Ford is the better candidate and although things have changed in the south, I just don’t see a black man winning a statewide election in the state of Tennessee.
Winner: Bob Corker (R)
The Gist of it
By my count, I think the Democrats will pick up 2 or 3 seats in the Senate. That’s not enough to take control but then again, this election is about building some momentum for the 2008 election. Republicans like to scare people in saying that if Democrats win the House all of these horrific things will happen. However, the only people who believe that are people who probably didn’t pass high school government. You see, the Congress can’t do anything without the President’s input. Meaning, the President can veto any bill a Democrat House put forward and there aren’t enough votes to override any veto. So in order for something to get done, they will have to compromise.
It will be an interesting Tuesday.
8:47 AM James, where is your Sunday football post?
Yeah I know your Bears are no longer undefeated as of yesterday but my Cowboys lost too although I knew they would.
9:11 AM I didn't have time to get to it. The Bears went down but they didn't play well. Hopefully, they will wake up.
9:42 AM James: hope you voted on all the propositions. Hope you voted NO on the cigarette tax, NO on 87 and NO on any further school bonds!
BZ
11:17 AM St. Louis will hopefully go to Claire McCaskill. But this all depends on how many people show up. Hopefully it won't rain...
12:24 PM J,I wish I could say the same thing about my Cowboys.
It looks as if there is a good chance Parcells may be riding into the sunset after this season is over.
12:25 PM Rose, I hope McCaskill wins because I watched her in several of her debates and she was very knowledgable about the issues and she did get in a couple of zingers when it counted.
2:03 PM The only thing that has changed in the South is that most people don't openly show their racism.
I also think Claire McCaskill will win.
I also agree, the Dems are not going to take over the House or Senate.
2:18 PM BZ,
I'll probably vote against most of the propositions.
Missouri is a really close race. It will be very intersting.
4:19 PM James: good for you!
BZ
8:36 PM You're lucky you didn't predict a McCaskill win or you would've been in trouble ;-)))!! I'm not saying it won't be tight but I really think we will pull out a win and boy am I rooting for Steele in Maryland.
4:47 AM Cyn, I agree with you about the Dems not taking over either house of Congress and if they take over the House it will be by the slimmest of majorities so that means that whoever the Democratic Speaker is her/his hands will be tied because the Democrats elected from Republican leaning districts won't be inclined to do anything that may inhibit their chances of reelection in two short years.
8:06 AM James, I didn't get my picks in either, too busy.
Good luck with your candidates and measures you are fond of.
I just voted, And the only thing I felt was the firm hand of the government reaching into my back pocket... I think I felt a squeeze too.
Oh well we shall see what the Democrats bring to the table other than "Bush bashing" if nothing changes look for a full republican house in 08, maybe the key is 100% republicans in the house and senate and a democrat administration...
Talk to ya later.
9:00 AM Bushwhack,
I just voted. What I don't understand about all of the bond measure is who the hell is going to pay for all of it. It's the California government is asking us to pay for new credit cards with the money we have while telling us about the interest or the monthly payments. I supported Proposition 1C and Proposition 90.
The others just cost too much.
11:00 AM I have to vote yet, but I intend to vote down EVERY bond measure, I think the voters should send the message that we will not allow any new spending until the administration gets their "stuff" together.
Unfortunately, I think Arnold will get second term. Sigh... good old wacky Californians voting some guy in because he played the Terminator.
Arizona is looking better every minute.
2:04 PM James I voted yes on the Inform parents about abortion measure.
the rest got a no.
I voted for Ahhnold for one reason only.
Boxer and Feinstein need a counter and He is the only one to do it.
He is a centerist not a conservative. I don't think he is tough enough on crime but he has done pretty good with the hand he was dealt.
4:40 PM Well James, what do ya think? I think once Virginia is official, this would be called drawing to an inside straight. But then Rummy quit. That makes it a Royal Flush!
It is all on the Dems now.